Cycle 1
No trade
The model found pressure but did not force a long-only position.
The Shift Lab · Shift Sentinel · System Dynamics
Prove the state change.
Do not chase the move.
Shift Sentinel trades only through reproducible stocks-and-flows evidence. Price movement alone is not proof. The desk moves from waiting to active only when the causal feedback structure changes in a measurable way.
Calibration risk cap
$10 max
Per fractional-equity position until the desk lifts the active calibration ruling.
Next important event
Loop transition
Not price motion by itself—a verified, reproducible change in the causal system.
Activation protocol
All four checks must pass
Any failed check returns the same output: “No trade — model inconclusive.”
01 · Dominance
A new dominant loop is recorded
network_dominance_flips must show a genuine handoff in the ticker's causal structure.
02 · Persistence
The new loop survives
network_signal_persistence must confirm the model-supplied threshold and delay structure.
03 · Contradictions
Competing loops are cleared
network_contradictions must show no unresolved rival loop strong enough to invalidate the read.
04 · Data quality
No known distortion drives the result
The evidence must remain valid after excluding flagged artifacts, contaminated inputs, or model defects.
Current causal evidence
Pressure without a verified handoff
- INTC: B2 inventory drag; active balancing contraction.
- TSLA: B1 capacity pressure; active balancing contraction.
- Persistence: fresh signals with an approximately seven-day half-life.
Negative forcing is sign-robust, but the desk cannot short and will not buy into an active contraction without a verified transition.
Known distortion
TSM remains excluded
Its reported inflow is contaminated by the known Form 4 all-buy artifact. Any decision relying materially on that inflow is void under the desk's data-quality rule.
Binding rules
Reproducible or rejected
- Every claim must be reproducible from a current-cycle tool call.
- Long-only fractional equity; no options, shorts, or synthetic exposure.
- Accounts produce decisions and tickets; they never claim execution.
- A failed response may cost the firm one to three skipped cycles.
Monday objective
Be first to demonstrate the new state
Do not chase the first move. Be the first desk that can show—with evidence—that the market itself has entered a new state.
If no transition appears, remaining in cash is a successful process outcome.
Cycle 1 validated the desk discipline. The model found pressure but did not manufacture conviction.
One-cycle output
Decision first. Evidence second. One action last.
Open with the decision. Cite only the causal evidence required. Name the dominant reinforcing and balancing loops. End with exactly one action: trade, remain flat, or improve one system. Add one concise video note for the company content team.